대만의 전력부족이 본토의 미사일보다 더 큰 위협

[출처 : Bloomberg 4월 25일]

ꏚ “3년 내, 전력부족이 광역정전을 유발하고 경제를 약화시킬 수 있어, 중국 본토의 미사일보다 더 큰 위협이 될 수 있다.”고 국영경제연구소 관계자의 말을 인용 4월 25일자 Bloomberg 보도

대만의 전력산업 규모

구 분	2005년	2004년	증가율
설비용량 (MW)	36,122	34,598	4.4
전력생산량 (백만kWh)	189,663	181,245	4.6
전력판매량 (백만kWh)	175,293	167,478	4.7
최대수요 (MW)	30,943	29,034	6.6

ꏚ 대만전력은 1981년 사업이 승인되어 63%의 공정을 보이는 4번째 원자력 발전소에 기대를 걸고 있으나, 2011년까지도 완공이 어려움

ꏚ 준공 시 수요의 6%를 담당할 것으로 기대되는 이 원자력 발전기가 없으면 2010년 전력부족 사태에 직면 할 수도 있음

○ 2010년 최대 수요 기준의 예비력 여유는 8.5%이하로 감소(10% 이상 유지필요)

○ 광역정전 위험으로 제조업의 해외 이주 가속화

ꏚ 대만은 전력수요 증가에 대비하여 매년 1,200MW 발전설비를 추가할 필요가 있음

○ 정부 관련 위원회에서 공기오염에 대한 우려로 1,600MW 용량의 석탄화력 발전소 건설계획 무효화를 권고

○ 이 화력발전소가 없으면 용량 예비력은 2015년에 거의 “0”에 이르게 됨

ꏚ 매년 평균 200회의 지진이 발생함에 따라 원자로가 안전하지 않은 것으로 간주되어 2001년 새로운 원자력 발전소 건설을 금지하는 결정을 촉발한 바 있음

ꏚ 2007년에 30% 증가한 90억 달러의 국방비 지출을 하면서도 전력 부족에 대한 인식은 상당히 부족

○ 경제관련 부처에 따르면 2025년까지 현재 12%의 수력 및 신․재생 에너지 설비용량을 17%까지 증가시킬 계획을 가지고 있지만,

○ 전문가들은 신․재생 에너지의 건설만으로는 원자력발전 미 완공에 의한 부족을 보충하기 어려울 것으로 우려

작성자 : 계통기술팀 정 응 수(☏6761)

1. 대만 전력계통(출처 : 대만전력 홈페이지)

2. 장기 전원개발 계획(출처 : 대만전력 홈페이지)

3. 인터넷 자료  원 문

Taiwan Power Shortage May Be Bigger Threat Than China Missiles

By Yu-huay Sun

April 25 (Bloomberg) -- China's missiles may not be the biggest danger to Taiwan. An impending power shortage could cause blackouts within three years and weaken the nation's economy.

Power production is failing to keep pace with demand because of a ban on new nuclear plants and delays in completing projects already underway, says Jeffrey Bor, a fellow at the Chung-hua Institution for Economic Research, which advises the government.

``The chance of large-scale blackouts is quite high,'' he says. ``Defense against missiles should be of lower importance because the chance of an attack is slim.''

President Chen Shui-bian's government has ignored long-term economic planning because of his drive to secure Taiwan's formal independence from China, says political scientist Yang Tai- shuenn. Power supply disruptions may accelerate the exodus of Taiwanese manufacturers, who already fill more than 40 percent of their export orders through overseas factories.

Taiwan Power Co. is counting on the nation's fourth nuclear plant to help prevent shortages. First approved in 1981, the station is only 63 percent complete. The project, in the northern city of Kungliao, probably won't open until 2011, Bor says.

Without Kungliao, which is designed to produce 6 percent of Taiwan's electricity, the island may face outages in 2010, say Bor and Liang Chi-yuan, a government adviser and economist at Academia Sinica, a state-funded research institute.

``Every walk of life will be affected,'' Liang says.

No Back-Up

Taipower estimates that the island's reserve margin, the spare capacity available during peak times, will shrink to 8.5 percent in 2010 without Kungliao.

That's less back-up than the state-run company needs to shut generators for maintenance, meaning one faulty unit could trigger blackouts, says Yang Feng-shuo, director of energy studies at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research. Taipower generates about 75 percent of the island's power.

``The trend of the reserve margin falling is quite worrisome,'' Yang says.

Clint Chou, a spokesman for Taipower, says that at least one of Kungliao's two reactors will be operational by 2010, allowing the company to maintain a reserve margin of 12 percent.

``As long as it's above 10 percent, it'll be OK,'' Chou says.

The risk of blackouts may prompt manufacturers to leave Taiwan, says Niven Huang, secretary general of the Taiwan Business Council for Sustainable Development, whose 25 members include Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world's biggest supplier of custom-made computer chips.

`We'll be Worried'

``Electricity outages disrupt operations and prompt companies to rethink investment locations,'' Huang says.

Still, Eric Tang, vice president of Powerchip Semiconductor Corp., Taiwan's biggest memory-chip maker, says he isn't aware of the falling reserve margin.

``If there are power outages, we'll be worried,'' he says.

Taiwan must add 1,200 megawatts of generating capacity, equal to 4 percent of the island's production, each year to meet demand. A government panel this month recommended that a 1,600- megawatt coal-fired power station be spiked because of pollution concerns.

Without new coal plants the island may see its back-up capacity slip to almost zero by 2015, says Tu Yueh-yuan Taipower's chief engineer.

``We'll be very nervous,'' she says. ``A power system can't allow a situation like that.''

Earthquake Risk

Environmental concerns also triggered a 2001 decision to ban new nuclear plants. Reactors weren't considered safe on an island that suffers an average of 200 earthquakes each year.

Finding a solution to Taiwan's dawning energy crisis isn't a pressing issue for the government, says Yang, a professor of politics at Chinese Culture University in Taipei.

``Chen Shui-bian is wooing supporters by stirring up issues that may have a short-term benefit,'' Yang says. ``His main strategy is to focus on the independence issue.''

The Nationalist government of Chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan in 1949 after it was defeated by the Chinese communists.

The People's Republic of China still claims Taiwan as part of its territory and says it may attack if the island seeks formal independence. Such a move by Taiwan is unlikely because of the island's constitution and political structure, says Chang Wu-ueh, China studies professor at Tamkang University in Taipei.

Revising Taiwan's constitution needs the backing of three- quarters of lawmakers and half the electorate.

Military Spending

Still, military spending is budgeted to increase 30 percent to NT$312 billion ($9 billion) in 2007 because of China's arms build up, including almost 1,000 missiles targeting the island, Chen said in a January interview with Cable News Network.

Y.L. Chen, secretary-general at the Bureau of Energy, rejects the charge that President Chen ignores energy issues. Conservation, renewable energy and increased power production by private companies will ensure adequate supplies, she says.

``There aren't expected to be power shortages,'' Chen says.

The government is pushing environmentally friendly technologies, paying as much as half the cost of building solar systems and offering tax-breaks for wind power projects.

By 2025, hydro and other forms of renewable energy may account for 17 percent of installed capacity, up from 12 percent now, according to the Ministry of Economic Affairs.

Liang says the projects the government is promoting can't provide stable supplies.

``Renewables can't make up for the loss of nuclear power,'' he says.